石破茂或放弃历史谈话

日本首相石破茂考虑放弃历史谈话 或将终结传统惯例

日本首相石破茂正在考虑在8月15日“终战纪念日”或9月2日日本签署投降书当天，放弃以书面文件形式发表首相有关历史认识的个人见解。相关协调工作已经展开，这意味着日本政府在重要节点年份发表包含历史认识内容的文件的惯例或将终结。

自民党在7月的参议院选举中惨败，党内要求首相下台的声音日益高涨。“倒石破”浪潮并未出现平息迹象。有鉴于此，石破茂认为发表个人见解可能会进一步激起保守派的反弹，加速其下台。

自战后以来，日本历任首相会在重要节点年份发表有关历史认识的谈话，例如战后50年的村山谈话、60年的小泉谈话和70年的安倍谈话。但自民党内保守派一直主张，安倍谈话之后不再需要新的谈话。

石破茂虽然早就决定不发表需要内阁敲定的战后80年谈话，但他一直在研究可否设置首相的私人咨询机构，基于对二战历史经纬的检验，以文件的形式发表首相的个人见解。 然而，由于党内混乱的现状，选定首相私人咨询机构人选一事尚未取得进展。

政府内部越来越多的观点认为，如果首相发表个人见解，“反石破”势力可能会以此为借口进一步“逼宫”，从而令政府陷入存亡危机。

阅读本文之前，你最好先了解...

• 日本“终战纪念日”：8月15日，纪念日本二战投降的日子。当天，日本首相通常会发表有关历史认识的谈话或声明。

• 日本签署投降书日期: 9月2日，日本正式向盟军代表签署投降书的日期。

• 村山、小泉、安倍谈话：战后重要年份，历任日本首相都会发表有关历史认识的谈话。例如1995年村山谈话、2001年小泉谈话和2015年安倍谈话。这些谈话通常包含对二战侵略行为的反省和道歉。

• 自民党保守派：日本政坛一股力量，主张强调日本民族主义和军国历史，反对进一步认罪道歉。

在石破茂可能放弃历史谈话 Amidst growing calls for his resignation, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is considering skipping the traditional statement on historical views. This move could signal a shift in Japan's approach to addressing its wartime past.

While some within the government see this as an opportunity to avoid further political turmoil, others worry it may undermine efforts towards reconciliation and understanding with neighboring countries. The potential consequences of this decision are significant and multifaceted:

Political Impact:

• Stability vs. Conflict: Skipping the historical statement could appease conservative factions within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and stabilize Kishida's position, at least temporarily.
• Public Opinion: However, it may also alienate moderate voters and those who see clear statements on history as essential for national accountability and reconciliation.

Historical Impact:

• Legacy of Apologies: Japan's postwar leaders have consistently acknowledged the atrocities committed during WWII through official statements and apologies. Abandoning this tradition could be seen as a retreat from past commitments and damage Japan's reputation on the international stage.
• Interpretations of History: The lack of a formal statement could leave room for diverse, even conflicting, interpretations of history. This ambiguity might fuel tensions with neighboring countries who demand more concrete actions and acknowledgements of past wrongs.

International Relations:

• Regional Tensions: South Korea and China, both deeply affected by Japan's wartime actions, may view this decision as dismissive of their suffering and a step backward in bilateral relations. This could lead to increased diplomatic friction and hinder cooperation on shared challenges.

Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to issue a historical statement carries immense weight for Japan's domestic political landscape, its efforts towards reconciliation with neighboring countries, and its international standing. The consequences will be felt far beyond 815th August.

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